Who might run in 2028, and where they stand

No one has formally entered the race yet, so this compares the people most often named as contenders: their odds, how likely they are to actually run, and what their record and recent statements say on the issues below.

Data as of September 27, 2026

The field

Market odds average Polymarket and Kalshi (mid-September 2026). Markets don't price the popular vote per candidate, so "Win presidency" is the closest measure. The ovals are an editorial read of public signals, not a market price.

Candidate Win party nomination Win presidency Latest primary poll Likelihood of running

On the issues

Pick an issue to see every candidate side by side. Each entry is tagged by what it rests on, since most of these people haven't published a 2028 platform.

How to read this

What the evidence tags mean
  • 2026 proposal: something the candidate has proposed or said this year, the closest thing to a 2028 platform.
  • Record: votes, laws signed, or actions taken in office.
  • Past campaign: positions from a 2020 or 2024 run, which may have shifted since.
  • No clear position: nothing specific found in public statements. Treat it as unknown, not as opposition.
Where the numbers come from

Nomination and presidency odds: PredictMarketCap's Polymarket/Kalshi comparison, averaged across both venues. Polls: Morning Consult, Aug 28–30, 2026 (via Newsweek), and Emerson College, July 2026, where a candidate wasn't listed by Morning Consult. Polls this early swing widely and mostly measure name recognition.

Likelihood of running

This is a judgment call from public statements (for example, Vance saying he'll decide after the midterms, Harris saying she's "thinking" about it, Ossoff saying he has no interest, Rubio saying he'd back Vance). It will move after the November 2026 midterms, when announcements typically start.

Adding an issue

Open this file and add an entry to CRITERIA, then add a matching key to each candidate's stances. Candidates without an entry show as "No clear position."