- Live: hayashi.in/2028
Nobody has formally entered the 2028 race yet, but the same names come up again and again. I wanted one page that puts them side by side: what the betting markets think, what the early polls say, how likely each person is to actually run, and what they have done or said on the issues I care about.
What’s on the page
The top table lists nine possible candidates, Republicans and Democrats, sorted by their odds of winning their party’s nomination. The odds are an average of Polymarket and Kalshi, taken from PredictMarketCap’s comparison. Markets don’t price the popular vote per candidate, so “win presidency” is the closest measure. Next to that is the latest primary poll I could find for each person.
The last column is a row of ballot ovals, one to five filled, for how likely the person is to run. This one is my own read of public statements, not a market price, and the page says so. Someone who says they’ll decide after the midterms and already has a political team gets five. Someone who says they have no interest gets two, even if the markets like them.
Below the table you pick an issue and see every candidate’s position on it:
- Wealth inequality
- Campaign finance
- Big Tech and oligarchy
- Democracy and executive power
- AI
- Health care
- Housing and cost of living
- Immigration
- Climate and environment
- Financial regulation
- Corporate tax
- Education and science
Tagging the evidence
Most of these people have no 2028 platform, so a flat list of positions would mix a bill someone signed last year with a line from a campaign six years ago. Each entry carries a tag for what it rests on:
- 2026 proposal: something proposed or said this year, the closest thing to a platform.
- Record: votes, laws signed, or actions in office.
- Past campaign: a position from a 2020 or 2024 run, which may have moved since.
- No clear position: nothing specific found. That means unknown, not opposed.
The gaps turned out to be informative. On campaign finance, several candidates have nothing on record at all, while for one of them it’s the signature issue. On AI, the candidates split along lines that don’t follow party.
How it’s built
It’s a single static HTML file with no build step and no framework. The candidates and issues are two JavaScript arrays at the bottom of the file, and the page renders the table and the issue view from them. Adding an issue means adding one entry to the list of issues and a matching key to each candidate. Anyone missing that key shows as “No clear position” automatically.
Every figure on the page is a snapshot dated September 27, 2026. The numbers will move a lot after the November 2026 midterms, when announcements usually start.